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Konstantin Makienko - Deputy Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies since 1997. In 1995 he graduated with honors from the Oriental Division of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In 1996 he graduated from the joint French-Russian Masters program of MGIMO and Institut des Etudes Politiques de Paris. In 1996-1997 he worked as Director of the Conventional Armaments Project of the Center for Policy Studies in Russia (PIR Center). Mr. Makienko is the author of numerous articles on Russia's military-technical cooperation with foreign states.
On August 16, 2001, the U.S. Congressional Research Service of the U.S. Congress Library published a report by Richard F. Grimmett: "Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 1993-2000". Such reports are published annually and analyze arms deliveries and new agreements for a period of eight years with a special emphasis on the last year under review. Thus, the report released on August 16 contained information on 1993-2000 and paid special attention to the year 2000.
2001 report on Russia
The report claims that in 2000 Russia ranked second in volume of arms transfer agreements having signed such agreements with developing nations for $7.4 billion (29.1% of the world's arms agreements with this group of countries), while its transfer agreements with all countries (developing and developed) totaled $7.7 billion. Hence over 96% of the agreements it concluded in 2000 were with developing countries. In 1999 the contracts developing countries placed in Russia amounted to $3.2 billion, which means that in 2000, volumes skyrocketed. However, in actual arms deliveries, Russia ranked third after the United States and Britain, having transferred weaponry for $2.4 billion to developing countries.
The report lists that in 2000 Russia signed a $500 million agreement for Pantsir-S-1 (SA-19) surface-to-air missile system with the United Arab Emirates, an over $3 billion license agreement with India for the production of 140 Su-30MKI fighters, a $700 million deal for the delivery and licensed production of 310 T-90 main battle tanks, and an agreement on the repairs and transfer of the aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Gorshkov (Kiev class) with India.
Richard Grimmett also described Russia's military-technical cooperation with China. He claimed that by 1996 Russia had sold China "at least" 72 Su-27 (Flanker) fighters and four submarines of the Kilo class. Besides, it signed an agreement on the production of 200 Su-27 fighters under license and sold two destroyers of the Sovremenny class. In 1999 China reportedly imported "40 to 60 Su-30 multirole fighters" for $2 billion from Russia. At the end of 2000 Russia and China reportedly signed a $1 billion agreement on four AWACS aircraft.
In 1997-2000 Russia became a leader on the market in Asia and the Pacific Rim, winning 40.7% of all contracts placed by countries of the region thanks mainly to aircraft deals with India and China. During the same period it ranked third in South America after the United States and France in agreement volumes controlling 5.8% of the market. In Africa Russia held the lead in 1993-1996 with 26.1% of the market but in 1997-2000 did not make it even to the top three, letting ahead Germany that won major contracts for deliveries of naval weaponry to South Africa, China and West European countries as a group.
On the whole the dynamics of Russian deliveries and contracts as described by Richard Grimmett in the report for 2000 are summed up in Table 1.
Source: Richard F. Grimmett, "Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 1993-2000", Congressional Research Service, The Library of US Congress, 2001
Regional structure of Russian arms transfer agreements with developing countries
| Year
|
1993
|
1994
|
1995
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
1993-2000
|
| Agreements with developing countries at current prices, mln USD
|
1.200
|
3.700
|
5.300
|
4.100
|
3.400
|
2.300
|
3.100
|
7.400
|
30.500
|
| Agreements with developing countries at constant 2000 prices, mln USD
|
1.420
|
4.283
|
6.013
|
4.554
|
3.695
|
2.444
|
3.223
|
7.400
|
33.032
|
| Agreements with developing countries at current prices, mln USD
|
2.100
|
1.400
|
2.700
|
2.200
|
2.200
|
2.000
|
2.300
|
2.400
|
17.300
|
| Agreements with developing countries at constant 2000 prices, mln USD
|
2.485
|
2.431
|
1.588
|
2.443
|
2.391
|
2.126
|
2.392
|
2.400
|
18.256
|
| Russia's share in world agreements with developing countries, %
|
5.08
|
16.68
|
29.96
|
20.03
|
20.66
|
13.88
|
13.64
|
29.09
|
|
| Russia's share in world deliveries to developing countries, %
|
10.8
|
7.41
|
10.55
|
8.65
|
7.14
|
7.86
|
9.13
|
12.38
|
|
| Agreements with all countries at current prices, mln USD
|
2.400
|
4.000
|
7.500
|
4.600
|
3.600
|
2.600
|
3.900
|
7.700
|
36.300
|
| Agreements with all countries at constant 2000 prices, mln USD
|
2.840
|
4.631
|
8.509
|
5.109
|
3.913
|
2.763
|
4.055
|
7.700
|
39.520
|
| Russia's share in agreements with all countries, %
|
6.90
|
12.74
|
28.33
|
14.67
|
16.13
|
9.21
|
11.93
|
20.89
|
|
| Deliveries to all countries at current prices, mln USD
|
3.400
|
1.700
|
3.500
|
3.100
|
2.600
|
2.200
|
3.100
|
3.500
|
23.100
|
| Deliveries to all countries at constant 2000 prices, mln USD
|
4.024
|
1.968
|
3.971
|
3.443
|
2.826
|
2.338
|
3.223
|
3.500
|
25.292
|
| Russia's share in deliveries to all countries, %
|
10.57
|
5.77
|
9.72
|
8.65
|
6.25
|
6.06
|
8.49
|
11.91
|
|
|
|
| Region
|
Asia-Pacific rim
|
Middle East
|
South America
|
Africa
|
| 1993-96
|
1997-00
|
1993-96
|
1997-00
|
1993-96
|
1997-00
|
1993-96
|
1997-00
|
| Russian agreements with developing countries at current prices, mln USD
|
10.700
|
12.400
|
2.500
|
2.600
|
400
|
200
|
700
|
1.000
|
| Share of region in Russia's agreements with developing countries, %
|
74.83
|
76.54
|
17.48
|
16.05
|
2.8
|
1.23
|
4.9
|
6.17
|
| Russia's share in arms agreements with region, %
|
35.27
|
40.68
|
5.44
|
6.78
|
7.70
|
5.79
|
26.12
|
11.24
|
| Russian deliveries at current prices, mln USD
|
4.500
|
5.300
|
3.100
|
2.400
|
300
|
300
|
600
|
800
|
| Share of region in Russia's overall deliveries, %
|
52.94
|
60.23
|
36.47
|
27.27
|
3.53
|
3.41
|
7.06
|
9.09
|
| Russia's share in overall deliveries to region, %
|
17.92
|
14.64
|
6.37
|
4.16
|
5.88
|
8.61
|
18.00
|
24.34
|
|
Source: Richard F. Grimmett, "Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 1993-2000", Congressional Research Service, The Library of US Congress, 2001
The report contains especially many details about arms delivery contracts with countries in the Middle East. The volumes of the Russian contracts and deliveries to the region are given in Table 3.
Prices of Russian arms transfer agreements and deliveries to the Middle East in current prices, mln USD
| Country
|
1993-1996
|
1997-2000
|
| Agreements
|
Deliveries
|
Agreements
|
Deliveries
|
| Algeria
|
400
|
300
|
700
|
500
|
| Egypt
|
700
|
200
|
|
300
|
| Iran
|
200
|
1.300
|
300
|
800
|
| Kuwait
|
800
|
800
|
|
|
| Syria
|
100
|
100
|
300
|
300
|
| United Arab Emirates
|
300
|
300
|
800
|
400
|
| Jordan
|
|
|
300
|
|
|
|
Source: Richard F. Grimmett, "Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 1993-2000", Congressional Research Service, The Library of US Congress, 2001
Russian arms deliveries by category and region
| Category
|
Total
|
Asia-Pacific rim
|
Middle East
|
South America
|
Africa
|
| 1993-1996
|
| Tanks, SP guns
|
240
|
10
|
120
|
40
|
70
|
| Artillery systems
|
490
|
380
|
40
|
40
|
30
|
| Combat vehicles
|
1.400
|
40
|
740
|
120
|
500
|
| Heavy ships
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Small craft
|
13
|
11
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
| Guided missile boats
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Submarines
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
| Supersonic aircraft
|
70
|
60
|
0
|
10
|
0
|
| Subsonic aircraft
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Other aircraft
|
30
|
0
|
20
|
10
|
0
|
| Helicopters
|
230
|
80
|
70
|
30
|
50
|
| Anti-aircraft missiles
|
1.670
|
690
|
160
|
820
|
0
|
| Surface-to-surface missiles
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Anti-ship missiles
|
30
|
10
|
20
|
0
|
0
|
| 1997-2000
|
| Tanks, SP guns
|
430
|
30
|
350
|
0
|
50
|
| Artillery systems
|
200
|
0
|
20
|
0
|
180
|
| Combat vehicles
|
780
|
70
|
600
|
30
|
80
|
| Heavy ships
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Small craft
|
5
|
5
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Guided missile boats
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Submarines
|
5
|
4
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
| Supersonic aircraft
|
140
|
80
|
20
|
0
|
40
|
| Subsonic aircraft
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Other aircraft
|
30
|
0
|
10
|
20
|
0
|
| Helicopters
|
200
|
70
|
50
|
60
|
20
|
| Anti-aircraft missiles
|
1.120
|
1.120
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Surface-to-surface missiles
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Anti-ship missiles
|
90
|
90
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
Source: Richard F. Grimmett, "Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 1993-2000", Congressional Research Service, The Library of US Congress, 2001
Critical analysis of reported data
The integral volumes of Russian arms exports in the report are close to those announced officially. However, a more detailed analysis demonstrates significant differences between Grimmett's estimates and official Russian statistics, which are the most reliable source of information. The differences are as follows:
The estimated volume of Russian deliveries stated in the report ($3,500 million) is only a little below the officially announced figure of $3,680 million. However, the differences in the distribution of deliveries by region are considerable. According to the report, the share of developing countries in 2000 was 68.8% of total or $2,400 million while official Russian statistics say 74% of Russian arms exports went to Asia and Pacific rim countries alone (all of them with the exception of Japan are regarded as developing). Combined with the Middle East, South America and Africa the share of developing countries should constitute 80-85% of total Russian deliveries. This estimate is confirmed by the fact that official reports say a little over 14% of total deliveries went to Europe (13.8% of them to Greece).
The estimated price of Russia's 2000 contracts seems grossly exaggerated. The congressional report says that Russia signed transfer agreements for $7.7 billion. Russia does not have a practice of publishing official reports on the price of contracts signed, therefore only nongovernmental estimates may be used. CAST evaluates the price of identified contracts of Rosoboronexport arms trader at about $4.5 billion. To them we should add a $720 million contract between the Instrument Building Design Bureau and the United Arab Emirates and a $300 million deal between Antey Concern and Greece. Thus, on the basis of the open press, CAST has identified contracts worth a little over $5.5 billion.
Several contracts mentioned in the report were not signed at all, some others were concluded after 2000. Thus the contract for the delivery and licensed production of 310 T-90S tanks with India (estimated at $700 million in the report) was signed in February 2001. The contract for delivering and refurbishing the aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Gorshkov has not been signed to this day. Neither did the Russian open press carry any information about a $1 billion contract with China on the delivery of four AWACS aircraft. Such disparity may be accounted to the fact that Richard Grimmett took into account the prices of all preliminary understandings, which is confirmed by his use of the term transfer agreements instead of contracts, irrespective of whether actual contracts had been signed or not.
There is no confirmation by a single Russian source that Russia delivered 72 Su-27 fighters to China prior to 1996. In contrast, Russia is known to have transferred to China 48 fighters in batches of 26 and 22 units in 1992-1996.
Several prices of arms contracts and deliveries to the Middle East in the report seem greatly exaggerated. For instance, the report claims that in 1997-2000 Russian deliveries to Iran were worth $800 million and the price of contracts for the same period $300 million. However, after Russia delivered the third submarine of the 877EKM project (Kilo class) in December 1996
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